Carbon County vs. Montana
Comparative Trends Analysis:
Gross Domestic Product Growth and Change, 2001-2018
Introduction
Carbon County:
2018 GDP = $285,963K
2018 Percent of State = 0.6%
Montana:
2018 GDP = $50,326,593K
2018 Percent of State = 0.2%
Nationally, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is widely regarded as the foremost blue-chip barometer for tracking and calibrating the economic performance of the economy nationwide. Like its closely followed national counterpart, the GDP of Carbon County is the most comprehensive measure of output of all goods and services produced by labor and property located within Carbon County. It is a market valuation of the goods and services-both private and public-produced within a regional economy.
Unlike the widely and frequently reported employment and job numbers that measure labor as one of the units of input into production, GDP is a valuation of the output. Also, while County Personal Income is representative of the "purchasing power" of those that reside within a county, think of Gross Domestic Product as representative of the "producing power" of that county.
For a more detailed and technical explanation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by County compiled by the Regional Product Branch of Bureau of Economic Analysis please refer to the A Primer on Local Area Gross Domestic Product Methodology article found on the BEA website.

BEA: Definition

GDP by county is the county counterpart of the Nation's gross domestic product (GDP), the Bureau's featured and most comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity. GDP by county is derived as the sum of the GDP originating in all the industries in a county.

The statistics of real GDP by county are prepared in chained (2012) dollars. Real GDP by county is an inflation-adjusted measure of each county's gross product that is based on national prices for the goods and services produced within that county. The statistics of real GDP by county and of quantity indexes with a base year of 2012 were derived by applying national chain-type price indexes to the current-dollar GDP-by-county values for the 64 detailed NAICS-based industries for 1997 forward.

The chain-type index formula that is used in the national accounts is then used to calculate the values of total real GDP by county and of real GDP by county at more aggregated industry levels. Real GDP by county may reflect a substantial volume of output that is sold to other counties and regions. To the extent that a county's output is produced and sold in national markets at relatively uniform prices (or sold locally at national prices), real GDP by state captures the differences across states that reflect the relative differences in the mix of goods and services that the counties produce. However, real GDP by county does not capture geographic differences in the prices of goods and services that are produced and sold locally.

United States. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Product Division.
BEA News Release (GDP by State). 2013. Web.
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/gsp_newsrelease.htm.

BEA: Relation of GDP by county to U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

An industry's GDP by county, or its value added, in practice, is calculated as the sum of incomes earned by labor and capital and the costs incurred in the production of goods and services. That is, it includes the wages and salaries that workers earn, the income earned by individual or joint entrepreneurs as well as by corporations, and business taxes such as sales, property, and Federal excise taxes that count as a business expense.

GDP is calculated as the sum of what consumers, businesses, and government spend on final goods and services, plus investment and net foreign trade. In theory, incomes earned should equal what is spent, but due to different data sources, income earned, usually referred to as gross domestic income (GDI), does not always equal what is spent (GDP). The difference is referred to as the "statistical discrepancy."

Starting with the 2004 comprehensive revision, BEA's annual industry accounts and its GDP-by-county accounts allocate the statistical discrepancy across all private-sector industries. Therefore, the GDP-by-county statistics are now conceptually more similar to the GDP statistics in the national accounts than they had been in the past.

U.S. real GDP by county for the advance year, 2012, may differ from the Annual Industry Accounts' GDP by industry and, hence NIPA (National Income and Product Account) GDP, because of different sources and vintages of data used to estimate GDP by state and NIPA GDP. For the revised years of 2009-2011, U.S. GDP by county is nearly identical to GDP by industry except for small differences resulting from the GDP-by-county accounts' exclusion of overseas Federal military and civilian activity (because it cannot be attributed to a particular state). The GDP-by-industry statistics are identical to those from the 2012 annual revision of the NIPAs, released in July 2012. However, because of revisions since July 2012, GDP in the NIPAs may differ from U.S. GDP by county.

United States. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Product Division.
BEA News Release (GDP by State). 2013. Web.
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/gsp_newsrelease.htm.

Carbon County Gross Domestic Product, 2002-2018
Current vs. Chained 2012 Dollars (Millions)
Carbon County Gross Domestic Product, 2002-2018
Current vs. Chained 2012 Dollars (Millions)
Figure 1.
Figure 1 depicts Carbon County's annual gross domestic product over 2002-2018 in current and constant (chained 2012) dollars. Constant dollar measurements remove the effects of inflation. They allow for comparison of changes in the real total good and services output of Carbon County over time.
When measured in current dollars, Carbon County's GDP increased 95.6%, from $146M in 2002 to $286M in 2018. When measured in constant 2012 dollars to adjust for inflation, it advanced 30.1%, from $193M in 2002 to $251M in 2018.
Real Gross Domestic Product, 2001-2018 (Millions)
Real Gross Domestic Product, 2001-2018 (Millions)
Figure 2.
Figure 2 traces Carbon County's and Montana's annual real gross domestic product for the period 2001-2018 to illustrate real gross domestic product patterns over time. During this 18-year period, Carbon County's real gross domestic product rose from $195M in 2001 to $251M in 2018, for a net gain of $56M, or 28.7%. In comparison, Montana's real GDP advanced from $31,651M in 2001 to $46,220M in 2018, for a net gain of $14,569M, or 46.0%.
Real Gross Domestic Product Indices (2001=100): 2001-2018
Real Gross Domestic Product Indices (2001=100): 2001-2018
Figure 3.
Figure 3 portrays Carbon County's real gross domestic product growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Montana, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's real gross domestic product in 2001 as a base figure of 100, and the real gross domestic products in later years as a percentage of the 2001 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in real gross domestic product growth between regions that may differ vastly in size.
Carbon County's overall real GDP growth was 28.7% over 2001-2018 trailed Montana's increase of 46.0%, and fell below the United States' increase of 40.5%.
Gross Domestic Product as a Percent of the Montana Total: 2001-2018
Gross Domestic Product as a Percent of the Montana Total: 2001-2018
Figure 4.
Another interesting and insightful way of comparing the gross domestic product growth of Carbon County is to compare its individual percentage contributions to Montana's statewide gross domestic product over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's gross domestic product grew faster, or declined less, than Montana's gross domestic product, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly.
In 2001, Carbon County's GDP totaled 0.64% of Montana's GDP, while in 2018 it totaled 0.57% thereby yielding a -0.07% share-shift.
   
 
Gross Domestic Product Share-Shift
2018 vs. 2001
 
Share-
Shift*
 
2018
vs.
2001
-0.07%
=
0.57%
-
0.64%
 
   
Carbon County Real Gross Domestic Product:
Annual Percent Change, 2002-2018
Carbon County Real Gross Domestic Product:
Annual Percent Change, 2002-2018
Figure 5.
Figure 5 shows the short-run pattern of Carbon County's real gross domestic product growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 2002-2018. The average annual percent change for the entire 17-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average.
On average, Carbon County's real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.59% over 2002-2018. The county recorded its highest growth in 2017 (10.95%) and posted its lowest growth in 2008 (-6.14%). In 2018, Carbon County's real GDP declined by -2.57%
Carbon County Real Gross Domestic Product:
Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 2002-2018
Carbon County Real Gross Domestic Product:
Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 2002-2018
Figure 6.
Figure 6 again shows the annual percent change in Carbon County's real gross domestic product since 2002, but this time they are displayed with the average growth rate for 2010-2018.
During the 2010s, Carbon County's annual real GDP growth rate averaged 1.49%.
Real Gross Domestic Product Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change by Decade
Real Gross Domestic Product Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change by Decade
Figure 7.
Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Carbon County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Montana and the nation. As the chart reveals, Carbon County's average annual real gross domestic product growth and lagged Montana's average over the 9 year period of the last decade, 2010-2018 (1.49% vs. 1.82%).
Finally, relative to nationwide real gross domestic product growth trends, Carbon County and recorded underneath the nation over 2010-2018 (1.49% vs. 2.29%).
   
 
Real* Gross Domestic Product Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change
 
 
 
1.59
1.49
-2.57
 
2.27
1.82
2.64
 
2.03
2.29
2.93
 
   

Tip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.

   
 
Carbon County:
Gross Domestic Product, 2001-2018
 
2001
 
145,868
0.836
195,167
100.0
N
0.64
2002
 
146,225
0.827
193,118
99.0
-1.05
0.61
2003
 
154,796
0.840
196,206
100.5
1.60
0.60
2004
 
178,620
0.923
215,479
110.4
9.82
0.64
2005
 
181,385
0.912
212,984
109.1
-1.16
0.59
2006
 
202,281
0.983
229,532
117.6
7.77
0.61
2007
 
206,660
0.958
223,684
114.6
-2.55
0.57
2008
 
201,019
0.899
209,951
107.6
-6.14
0.55
2009
 
208,116
0.947
221,075
113.3
5.30
0.58
2010
 
217,055
0.965
225,288
115.4
1.91
0.57
2011
 
225,798
0.982
229,231
117.5
1.75
0.56
2012
 
233,447
1.000
233,447
119.6
1.84
0.56
2013
 
241,475
1.007
235,144
120.5
0.73
0.56
2014
 
247,701
1.010
235,886
120.9
0.32
0.56
2015
 
247,653
1.003
234,222
120.0
-0.71
0.54
2016
 
250,588
0.996
232,444
119.1
-0.76
0.55
2017
 
286,305
1.105
257,895
132.1
10.95
0.60
2018
 
285,963
1.076
251,273
128.7
-2.57
0.57
Source: Calculations by the Montana Regional Economic Analysis Project (MT-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2019
REAP_PI_CA1400_2000_PSN
 
   

Tip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.

   
 
Montana:
Gross Domestic Product, 2001-2018
 
2001
 
22,851,738
0.753
31,650,506
100.0
N
0.22
2002
 
23,880,513
0.774
32,526,817
102.8
2.77
0.22
2003
 
25,637,604
0.806
33,842,946
106.9
4.05
0.22
2004
 
27,939,177
0.842
35,374,922
111.8
4.53
0.23
2005
 
30,529,705
0.883
37,077,120
117.1
4.81
0.23
2006
 
32,933,321
0.915
38,431,251
121.4
3.65
0.24
2007
 
36,074,061
0.961
40,378,839
127.6
5.07
0.25
2008
 
36,862,525
0.956
40,161,549
126.9
-0.54
0.25
2009
 
35,983,926
0.936
39,337,432
124.3
-2.05
0.25
2010
 
38,054,569
0.965
40,543,843
128.1
3.07
0.25
2011
 
40,579,335
0.987
41,473,092
131.0
2.29
0.26
2012
 
42,005,809
1.000
42,005,809
132.7
1.28
0.26
2013
 
43,141,022
1.010
42,433,805
134.1
1.02
0.26
2014
 
44,495,718
1.028
43,173,677
136.4
1.74
0.25
2015
 
46,152,870
1.068
44,871,442
141.8
3.93
0.25
2016
 
45,457,928
1.054
44,265,422
139.9
-1.35
0.24
2017
 
47,559,074
1.072
45,029,245
142.3
1.73
0.24
2018
 
50,326,593
1.100
46,219,700
146.0
2.64
0.24
Source: Calculations by the Montana Regional Economic Analysis Project (MT-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2019
REAP_PI_CA1400_2000_PSN
 
   

Tip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.

   
 
United States:
Gross Domestic Product, 2001-2018
 
2001
 
10,581,822,000
0.819
13,262,079,000
100.0
N
2002
 
10,936,418,000
0.833
13,493,064,000
101.7
1.74
2003
 
11,458,246,000
0.857
13,879,129,000
104.7
2.86
2004
 
12,213,730,000
0.889
14,406,382,000
108.6
3.80
2005
 
13,036,637,000
0.921
14,912,509,000
112.4
3.51
2006
 
13,814,609,000
0.947
15,338,257,000
115.7
2.85
2007
 
14,451,860,000
0.965
15,626,029,000
117.8
1.88
2008
 
14,712,845,000
0.963
15,604,687,000
117.7
-0.14
2009
 
14,448,932,000
0.939
15,208,834,000
114.7
-2.54
2010
 
14,992,052,000
0.963
15,598,753,000
117.6
2.56
2011
 
15,542,582,000
0.978
15,840,664,000
119.4
1.55
2012
 
16,197,007,000
1.000
16,197,007,000
122.1
2.25
2013
 
16,784,851,000
1.018
16,495,369,000
124.4
1.84
2014
 
17,527,258,000
1.044
16,912,038,000
127.5
2.53
2015
 
18,224,780,000
1.075
17,403,843,000
131.2
2.91
2016
 
18,715,040,000
1.092
17,688,890,000
133.4
1.64
2017
 
19,519,424,000
1.118
18,108,082,000
136.5
2.37
2018
 
20,580,223,000
1.151
18,638,164,000
140.5
2.93
Source: Calculations by the Montana Regional Economic Analysis Project (MT-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2019
REAP_PI_CA1400_2000_PN
 
   
Copyright © 2020. Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP). All Rights Reserved.

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