Wheatland County vs. Montana Comparative Trends Analysis: Per Capita Personal Income Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Wheatland County: 2022 PCI = $46,650 2022 Percent of State = 76.50% Montana: 2022 PCI = $60,984 Per Capita Income (PCI) is one of the most widely used indicators for gauging the economic performance and changing fortunes of local economies. It is used as a yardstick to assess the economic well being of a region's residents and the quality of consumer markets. It serves as a barometer for calibrating the economic performance of a region over time and to judge differences in relative economic prosperity between regions. Shifting trends in local per capita income growth have important social and political ramifications and significant implications in formulating local economic development strategies and initiatives. Data Definition: This measure of income is calculated as the total personal income of the residents of an area divided by the population of the area. Per capita personal income is often used as an indicator of consumers' purchasing power and of the economic well-being of the residents of an area. Personal income is measured as a flow throughout the year, while the measurement of population is at one point in mid-year. Therefore, per capita income is distorted if a significant change in population occurs during the year. For smaller counties in particular, per capita income in any given year may be exceptionally high or low for the short run because of unusual local conditions, such as a bumper crop, a catastrophe, or a major construction project as the building of a dam or nuclear power plant. Farm incomes are notorious for being especially volatile year-to-year, owing to changing weather, commodity market conditions, and alterations in government programs. Therefore, the per capita income of farm-dependent counties may exhibit sharp fluctuations over time. The presence of large institutional populations--such as residents attending a local college or the residents of a local prison or state mental institution--can significantly lower the per capita income estimates of an area. Such results may not reflect the relative economic well being of the non-institutional population and may mislead if care is not given to their interpretation. Wheatland County Per Capita Personal Income, 1970-2022 Current vs. Constant Dollars Figure 1. Figure 1 depicts Wheatland County's annual per capita personal income over 1970-2022 in current and constant (2017) dollars. Constant dollar measurements remove the effects of inflation. They allow for comparison of changes in the real purchasing power of Wheatland County over time. When measured in current dollars, Wheatland County's per capita personal income increased 1,100.42%, from $3,886 in 1970 to $46,650 in 2022. When measured in constant 2017 dollars to adjust for inflation, it advanced 104.47%, from $19,661 in 1970 to $40,201 in 2022. Real Per Capita Personal Income, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 traces Wheatland County's and Montana's annual real per capita personal income for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate real per capita personal income patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Wheatland County's real per capita personal income rose from $20,000 in 1969 to $40,201 in 2022, for a net gain of $20,200, or 101.00%. In comparison, Montana's real per capita personal income advanced from $17,936 in 1969 to $52,553 in 2022, for a net gain of $34,617, or 193.00%. Real Per Capita Personal Income Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 shows Wheatland County's real per capita personal income growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Montana, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's real per capita personal income in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the real per capita personal incomes in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in real per capita personal income growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Wheatland County's overall real per capita personal income growth was 101.00% over 1969-2022 trailed Montana's increase of 193.00%, and fell below the United States' increase of 171.04%. Per Capita Personal Income as a Percent of the U.S. Average: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Figure 4 portrays the trends for per capita personal income relative to the national average by tracing Wheatland County and Montana per capita personal income as a percent of the national average over 1969-2022. In 1969, Wheatland County's per capita personal income amounted to 96.08% of the national average; in 2022, it approximated 71.25%. Similarly, in 1969, Montana's per capita personal income totaled 86.17% of the national average; in 2022, it consisted of 93.15%. Wheatland County Real Per Capita Personal Income: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 shows the short-run pattern of Wheatland County's real per capita personal income growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Wheatland County's real per capita personal income grew at an annual rate of 1.59% over 1970-2022. The county recorded its highest growth in 2011 (17.74%) and posted its lowest growth in 2002 (-12.57%). In 2022, Wheatland County's real per capita personal income grew by 1.83% Wheatland County Real Per Capita Personal Income: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again traces the annual percent change in Wheatland County's real per capita personal income since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Wheatland County's annual real per capita personal income growth rate averaged 1.56%. It averaged 0.91% in the 1980s, -1.31% in the 1990s, 2.27% throughout the 2000s, 4.41% in the 2010s, 2.04% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Real Per Capita Personal Income Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Wheatland County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Montana and the nation. As the chart reveals, Wheatland County's average annual real per capita personal income growth lagged Montana's average throughout the 1970s (1.56% vs. 2.89%), exceeded Montana's average throughout the 1980s (0.91% vs. 0.87%), recorded under Montana's average throughout the 1990s (-1.31% vs. 1.64%), lagged Montana's average in the 2000s (2.27% vs. 2.56%), surpassed Montana's average throughout the 2010s (4.41% vs. 2.16%), and posted below Montana's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (2.04% vs. 3.16%). Finally, relative to nationwide real per capita personal income growth trends, Wheatland County recorded underneath the nation in the 1970s (1.56% vs. 2.37%), fell below the nation during the 1980s (0.91% vs. 2.19%), trailed the nation over the 1990s (-1.31% vs. 2.01%), recorded above the nation over the 2000s (2.27% vs. 1.10%), led the nation in the 2010s (4.41% vs. 1.97%), and outpaced the nation over 2020-2022 (2.04% vs. 1.78%).
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