Fergus County vs. Montana Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Fergus County: 2022 Population = 11,663 2022 Percent of State = 1.04% Montana: 2022 Population = 1,122,867 2022 Percent of U.S. = 0.34% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Fergus County with comparisons to Montana and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Fergus County vs. Montana's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 tracks Fergus County's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Fergus County's population dropped from 12,768 in 1969 to 11,663 in 2022, for a net loss of -1,105, or -8.65%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 traces Montana's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Montana's population rose from 694,000 in 1969 to 1,122,867 in 2022, for a net gain of 428,867, or 61.80%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 portrays Fergus County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Montana, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Fergus County's overall population growth was -8.65% over 1969-2022 trailed Montana's increase of 61.80%, and fell below the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the Montana Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of comparing the population growth of Fergus County is to trace its individual percentage contributions to Montana's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Montana's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, Fergus County's population comprised 1.84% of Montana's population, while in 2022 it equated to 1.04% thereby yielding a -0.80% share-shift.
Fergus County Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 displays the short-run pattern of Fergus County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Fergus County's population contracted at an annual rate of -0.17% over 1970-2022. The county recorded its highest growth in 1991 (1.88%) and recorded its lowest growth in 1986 (-2.16%). In 2022, Fergus County's population grew by 0.47% Fergus County Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again traces the annual percent change in Fergus County's population since 1970, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Fergus County's annual population growth rate averaged 0.20%. It averaged -0.67% during the 1980s, -0.15% throughout the 1990s, -0.34% during the 2000s, -0.19% throughout the 2010s, 0.91% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Fergus County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Montana and the nation. As the chart reveals, Fergus County's average annual population growth recorded under Montana's average during the 1970s (0.20% vs. 1.29%), posted below Montana's average during the 1980s (-0.67% vs. 0.14%), posted below Montana's average during the 1990s (-0.15% vs. 1.16%), recorded under Montana's average in the 2000s (-0.34% vs. 0.92%), recorded under Montana's average in the 2010s (-0.19% vs. 0.89%), and amounted to less than Montana's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (0.91% vs. 1.45%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Fergus County posted below the nation in the 1970s (0.20% vs. 1.10%), fell under the nation during the 1980s (-0.67% vs. 0.95%), fell below the nation over the 1990s (-0.15% vs. 1.23%), lagged the nation in the 2000s (-0.34% vs. 0.95%), fell under the nation throughout the 2010s (-0.19% vs. 0.74%), and registered above the nation over 2020-2022 (0.91% vs. 0.31%).
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